The Worksheet: The Worksheet: Week 15


Hopefully you all survived the carnage that was Week 14 or had a bye in your fantasy playoffs. If you didn’t move on or if you failed to make the postseason, the season doesn’t have to end for you as you can dabble into the Daily Fantasy waters if you’ve yet to try it out. Here’s the disclaimer that I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. With that out of the way, let’s hit all of the Week 15 games in a PPR fashion….

 

Tampa Bay vs. St. Louis









Buccaneers @ Rams
1 Spread -1
20 Team O/U 21
62.5 Plays/Gm 57.2
66.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.8
46.7% Rush % 44.8%
53.3% Pass % 55.2%
41.9% Opp. Rush % 42.7%
58.1% Opp. Pass % 57.3%

 

  • Todd Gurley has 97 carries for 348 yards (3.6 YPC) in the first half of games and 92 carries for 627 yards (6.8 YPC) in the second half this season. That +279 yard difference in the second half is the largest increase for any back on the year.
  • Tampa Bay allows just 12.4 rushing points per game, the third fewest in the league.
  • Tavon Austin has had more rushing yards than receiving yards in five of his past six games, with 217 yards rushing to 101 yards receiving total over that stretch.
  • In the three games that Vincent Jackson missed this season, Mike Evans caught 19 passes for 324 yards, seeing 31 percent, 52.8 percent and 33.3 percent of the team targets.
  • In the other nine games, he averaged 4.2 receptions for 62.8 yards with just two games reaching 70 receiving yards.
  • Doug Martin is tied with Adrian Peterson for the most games with double-digit carries while averaging over 5.0 yards per carry with six.
  • The Rams are allowing 136.7 rushing yards per game over their past six games after allowing 98.1 over their first seven games of the season.
  • Jameis Winston is the only quarterback this season to start every game and yet to have a 300-yard passing game.

 

Trust: Doug Martin (has shown consistency in terms of usage and rushing production and this is a game that projects to be low scoring with a slow pace)

 

Bust: Jameis Winston (has been in the back half of quarterback scoring in four of his past five, which includes tilts against the Colts and Saints), Tavon Austin (has been inside the top-48 just once over his past five games and you’re relying on manufactured touches)

 

Reasonable Return: Mike Evans (the opportunity should be massive when throwing; giving him more than a solid floor even if he runs into fits of inefficiency), Charles Sims (you may be really hurting at flex this week and his average scoring week is RB29), Todd Gurley (I don’t love this matchup for him, but the script should be relatively neutral for him to keep getting touches deep into the game like last week when he could pop runs), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (still not playing enough snaps to really feel good about, but more targets are vacant for him to flirt with high TE2 numbers)

 

New York (AFC) vs. Dallas









Jets @ Cowboys
-3 Spread 3
23 Team O/U 20
67.9 Plays/Gm 60.8
63.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.0
42.8% Rush % 43.8%
57.2% Pass % 56.2%
34.6% Opp. Rush % 44.4%
65.4% Opp. Pass % 55.6%

 

  • Since returning in Week 11, Bilal Powell ranks eighth in running back scoring (63.4 points) while Chris Ivory ranks 21st (47.4).
  • Over that four game span, Ivory has just six red zone touches (Powell has five) after having 35 touches in the red zone over his first nine games.
  • Since being injured in Oakland in Week 8, Ryan Fitzpatrick is sixth in the league in points per game (22.0 points) with weekly finishes of QB11, QB17, QB13, QB3, QB8 and QB4.
  • Fitzpatrick has thrown multiple touchdowns in ten games this season, the most ever in a season for his career.
  • Eric Decker (24) and Brandon Marshall (22) have combined for 46 red zone targets, the most of any duo in the league and more than four complete NFL teams (Eagles, Vikings, Bills and Rams).
  • Dallas allows just 256.9 passing yards to quarterbacks per game, the fourth fewest in the league.
  • The Cowboys are allowing just 12.8 receptions (sixth) for 153.8 yards (eighth) with seven total touchdowns (fourth) to wide receivers on the season.
  • Dallas has scored a touchdown on just 12.3 percent of their drives under Matt Cassel (eight of 65). They scored a touchdown on 20.6 percent of Brandon Weeden‘s dives (seven of 34) and 14.7 percent of Tony Romo‘s (five of 34).
  • Since being the starter in Week 7, Darren McFadden has faced three top-10 rushing defenses (the Jets are first) and in those games he carried 47 times for 107 yards (2.3 YPC).

 

Trust: Eric Decker (Dallas has been tougher on boundary receivers this season than interior ones, giving Decker an edge this week)

 

Bust: Darren McFadden (his touches are down and this game where he’ll have to do some passing game work to float his floor), Dez Bryant (if you’re still starting him, this is another really poor spot to expect return)

 

Reasonable Return: Brandon Marshall (he’s still far better than anyone checking him in this game and this offense is running through the passing game at the moment), Ryan Fitzpatrick (I like his floor more in this one, but still has shown the ceiling to push past that over the past three weeks), Chris Ivory ( I would like him more if the total and spread were larger, but I still feel like the script will be in his favor this week, but he still needs to find the paint to compensate for Powell soaking up the passing work), Bilal Powell (similar flex play to Charles Sims, only in a better offense)

 

Kansas City vs. Baltimore









Chiefs @ Ravens
-7.5 Spread 7.5
24.5 Team O/U 17
60.3 Plays/Gm 66.5
65.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.8
43.6% Rush % 35.9%
56.4% Pass % 64.1%
36.7% Opp. Rush % 41.3%
63.3% Opp. Pass % 58.7%

 

  • Baltimore is allowing .559 passing points per attempt, the fourth most in the league.
  • The Ravens have allowed 16 touchdown passes at home this season, the second most in the league behind New Orleans (19).
  • Travis Kelce hasn’t finished above TE7 since Week 3 and has six weeks outside of the top-12 over those ten games.
  • Opposing tight ends average just 4.7 receptions per game against Baltimore, the third fewest in the league.
  • Only the Eagles have allowed more receiving points to wide receivers than the Ravens (42.8 per game).
  • Since Steve Smith was lost for the season, Kamar Aiken ranks fifth in the NFL in targets (50) and 14th in fantasy points at wide receiver.
  • That target volume is relevant because Aiken ranks 25th in points per game (15.0) and 58th in points per target (1.53) over the same stretch.
  • 50.8 percent of Javorius Allen’s 59 rushing attempts (30 of 59) over the past four weeks have gone for two yards less (league average is 46.2 percent) while just 27.1 percent have gone for five or more yards (league average is 33.1 percent).
  • Allen has 60.8 receiving points (most in the league) over those four games after Justin Forsett had just 46.3 receiving points through ten games.
  • Kansas City is allowing just 4.8 receptions (fourth) for 34.3 yards (first) receiving to running backs this season.

 

Trust: Alex Smith (one the best floor options gets a strong opportunity to turn that into a QB1 ceiling this week), Jeremy Maclin (someone has to go along with Alex if he’s going to get there and lead receivers have given Baltimore handfuls of trouble)

 

Bust: Javorius Allen (he showed last week that his receiving floor wasn’t enough in a bloodbath and this week is setting up similarly, more of a lower RB2 this week then the bar he set Weeks 11-13)

 

Reasonable Return: Kamar Aiken (through various scripts and quarterbacks, he’s still been a top-30 scorer in every week since Steve Smith was lost except for one), Travis Kelce (the matchup isn’t strong enough to make you feel great about him crashing the low ceiling he’s shown, but if the targets get inflated by game plan like they should, he should have a useful reception floor a the position) , Charcandrick West (if Spencer Ware plays, I’m still avoiding this group, but if Ware is out, West had three straight games with 20 plus touches prior to his own injury)

 

Houston vs. Indianapolis









Texans @ Colts
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
70.5 Plays/Gm 67.2
62.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.5
39.5% Rush % 36.9%
60.5% Pass % 63.1%
42.2% Opp. Rush % 41.4%
57.8% Opp. Pass % 58.6%

 

  • The Colts have allowed 69 plays of 20 yards or longer, the most in the league.
  • After having four straight 100-yard receiving games Weeks 3-6, DeAndre Hopkins has had one over his past seven games, averaging 50.3 fewer yards per game than he did through the first six weeks of the season.
  • Through six weeks, Hopkins had 16 red zone targets (most in the league) while having just six since.
  • Chris Polk has played 43.2 percent of the snaps and Jonathan Grimes 34.1 percent to Alfred Blue‘s 6.8 percent over the past two weeks.
  • Polk has 48 percent of the team carries (23) over the past two weeks, while Grimes has 25 percent (12).
  • T.Y. Hilton has reached 75 receiving yards in six of seven games against the Texans, including a five reception, 88 yard game against them in Week 5.
  • The Colts have scored one touchdown on their past 28 offensive possessions.
  • Indianapolis averages just .404 rushing points per attempt as a team, 31st in the league above only San Diego (.355).

 

Bust: Frank Gore (he’s been a top-24 scorer just once over the past month and needed receiving score to get there), Matt Hasselbeck (the genie has been put back in the bottle the past two weeks in matchups far more superb than this one) Houston Backfield (I don’t mind this group in bulk this week, but there’s still too much ambiguity here to trust anyone in any lineup)

 

Reasonable Return: DeAndre Hopkins (has been more of a WR2 with upside over the past seven weeks and he could be peppered with targets again with T.J. Yates taking back over, but Houston may control the tempo and cap the overall volume), T.Y. Hilton (he’s back to being a weekly ball of volatility, making more of a WR3 play this week), Cecil Shorts (had had the three straight WR3 scoring weeks prior to last week’s egg and secondary/interior receivers have hurt the Colts this season)

 



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